Future Energy Pathways (FEP): draft guidance

Closed 13 Sep 2024

Opened 13 Aug 2024

Contact

strategicplanning@ofgem.gov.uk

Feedback updated 28 Feb 2025

We asked

We asked for views about our draft guidance for the National Energy System Operator (NESO) to produce future energy pathways. Our main questions were whether the guidance accurately reflected the decisions we had made on the changes to this work.

We were looking for responses from people and organisations who are currently using or will be using the Future Energy Pathways.

You said

We received responses from:

  • Energy & Utilities Alliance (EUA)
  • Northern Gas Network
  • Octopus Energy Group
  • Intergen
  • UKPN
  • Energy UK
  • Cadent Gas
  • The Crown Estate
  • ENWL
  • Hydrogen UK
  • SSE
  • ESO
  • EDF Energy
  • WW Utilities
  • ESB Generation and Trading
  • National Gas Transmission (NGT)
  • Northern Powergrid
  • SGN
  • SP Energy Networks (SPEN)
  • RWE

The majority of responses agreed that we had accurately reflected our decision in the guidance. Most responses asked for more clarity in certain areas, particularly around:

  • how the pathways will interact with the other NESO planning roles
  • whether regional pathways were still needed in this process
  • how distribution level, and gas data, will be incorporated in the future

Where we were given permission, we’ve published the responses we received.

We did

We have decided to amend the guidance in line with positions laid out in the responses,  mainly a number of minor changes to add clarity. We have made three more substantial changes to:

  • drop the requirement for the Future Energy Pathways to produce regional pathways, which will now be done as part of the regional planning work that NESO is undertaking
  • require that NESO explain in its Future Energy Pathways publication exactly how the future energy pathways work interacts with its other planning responsibilities
  • require NESO to explore with stakeholders how, and over what timescale, this work can include more distribution level and gas network information

See our decision document (PDF, 181.9 KB) and tracked changes (PDF, 197.7 KB) for more details on what we have changed in the final guidance, and why.

Read our notice of direction for the Future Energy Pathways guidance (PDF, 86.1 KB).

View the latest version of the Future Energy Pathways guidance on the Ofgem website.

Published responses

View submitted responses where consent has been given to publish the response.

Overview

We are seeking views on our draft Future Energy Pathways Guidance (Guidance), which is directed at the, soon to be established and operational, National Energy System Operator (NESO).

Who should respond 

We would like views from the Energy System Operator (ESO) or those that utilise the Future Energy Pathways (FEP), previously the Future Energy Scenarios. We also welcome responses from other stakeholders and the public.

Background

Future Energy Scenarios have been published annually by the current Energy System Operator (ESO) since 2011. They have explored how expected future energy demand and supply could be met by making changes to infrastructure, technology, innovation and consumer behaviour in line with net zero targets.

As of 2024, the ESO has moved from the previous scenario-based approach to strategic pathways. Recognising this, here they are referred to as the FEP.

ESO will soon be designated as the Independent System Operator and Planner, hold an Electricity System Operator Licence and Gas System Planner Licence, and be known by the company name of National Energy System Operator (NESO).

Once created, NESO will have responsibilities across Great Britain’s electricity and gas networks, including all the existing functions of ESO, so it is able to take an enhanced whole system approach to planning and operating the energy sector.

In line with its proposed new strategic planning responsibilities, a key objective for NESO will be the delivery of the Centralised Strategic Network Plan (CSNP) announced in November 2022. Amongst many other uses, the FEP will need to support delivery of the CSNP by providing energy modelling input.

Purpose of this guidance

Our draft Guidance is directed at NESO who, once set up, will develop the FEP. It sets out instructions on the processes, content and timeframe for producing the Future Energy Pathways Methodology and Pathways. It also refers to the CSNP Guidance. A draft version of this will be published for consultation in due course.

We intend to issue the draft Guidance in line with draft licence conditions C15 of the Electricity System Operator Licence and C10 of the Gas System Planner Licence.

These licence conditions are not yet in effect. The proposed Electricity System Operator Licence and Gas System Planner Licence are subject to consultation and statutory decisions, therefore, the Future Energy Pathway conditions referred to in the draft Guidance are potentially subject to change. 

Our progress

We conducted several consultations between 2021 and 2023.

Our consultation in November 2021 followed our review of network planning processes and led us to the development of the CSNP.

The second consultation in November 2022 outlined that the CSNP may utilise outputs from the FEP.

After this, we proposed:

  • moving towards strategic pathways instead of scenarios in May 2023
  • that the assessment of system need under the plan is extended to 2050 using multiple future energy pathways in July 2023.

We decided to adopt our previous consultation proposals of developing a set of strategic pathways to net zero in December 2023.

Before you start

Read the draft Guidance. You’ll find it in the ‘Related’ section on this page.

You will be asked to comment on different sections of the draft Guidance in relation to our decisions published in stage one of our 2023 decision. These are:

  • section one: develop a set of strategic pathways to net zero
  • section two: types of pathways and presentation of non-delivery of net zero futures
  • section three: the time horizon for pathways
  • section four: treatment of high-impact, low-probability events
  • section five: incorporating network constraints into the modelling
  • section six: improvements to transparency in analysis and outputs
  • section seven: national and regional outputs
  • section eight: timing of the FEP publications

Why your views matter

You may have previously responded to our calls for input and now we’re keen to hear what you think about our draft Guidance.

Audiences

  • Gas suppliers
  • Electricity suppliers
  • Energy industry employees
  • Academic
  • Policy
  • Government
  • Consumer groups

Interests

  • Network planning